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Countries are categorized as “stagnated” if they are not categorized as “improved” or “declined.” Some of these categorized as stagnated had stable performance others had differing performance across different tests. Countries are categorized as “declined” if they lost ten points on two subject tests in the past decade.
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8 Countries are categorized as “improved” if they gained ten points on two subject tests across PISA math, PISA reading, PISA science, PIRLS reading, TIMSS math, and TIMSS science in the past decade and if they improved by ten points or more on average across tests.
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In 17 systems, student performance declined by half a year of learning or more. Of the 73 countries with longitudinal data over the past decade, only 23 managed to achieve significant, sustained, and consistent improvements in student outcomes. In the decade preceding the COVID-19 pandemic, student performance in most school systems globally stagnated-or declined. There is likely some variation depending on a student’s age typically, students in earlier grades learn more content in a single year than students in later grades. The latest analysis from the OECD suggests that approximately 20 PISA points reflect a year of learning, while the World Bank suggests a year of learning equates to 20 to 50 PISA points. 7 The translation of PISA points to a year of learning is an art, not a science. By that measure, high school students in many sub-Saharan African countries may be ten or more years behind their peers in Europe, North America, or East Asia (Exhibit 1). The OECD suggests that approximately 20 PISA points are equivalent to a year of learning. and the Early Grade Reading Assessment (EGRA) has enabled a broader global comparison of learning outcomes. Historically, many of these countries have not taken international assessments, but more recently, the introduction of regional assessments 6 Relevant regional assessments include the Southern and Eastern Africa Consortium for Monitoring Educational Quality (SACMEQ), Programme for the Analysis of Education Systems (PASEC), and Latin American Laboratory for the Assessment of the Quality of Education (LLECE). 5 Based on UNESCO population data of countries with World Bank Harmonized Learning Outcome (HLO) data. However, more than 90 percent of children live in countries where average educational outcomes are below poor, poor, or fair. In our schema below, we classify those countries as having “good” or “great” performance. Much of the global discussion about educational performance revolves around a small subset of mostly high-income countries that get relatively high scores on the three major assessments: the Programme for International Assessment (PISA), the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS), and the Progress in International Reading Literacy Study (PIRLS). More children than ever are in school, but many are not mastering basic skills. 4 “70% of 10-year-olds now in learning poverty, unable to read and understand a simple text,” World Bank, June 23, 2022.
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This means that the majority of the world’s children are born into education systems where they will not learn to read by the end of elementary school. The same is true for nearly nine in ten students in sub-Saharan Africa. The World Bank estimates that seven in ten students in low- and middle-income countries are living in “learning poverty,” unable to read a simple text by the end of elementary school. Student learning improvements are not keeping up with these demands. This article is a collaborative effort by Jake Bryant, Felipe Child, Ezgi Demirdag, Emma Dorn, Stephen Hall, Kartik Jayaram, Charag Krishnan, Cheryl Lim, Emmy Liss, Kemi Onabanjo, Frédéric Panier, Juan Rebolledo, Jimmy Sarakatsannis, Doug Scott, Roman Tschupp, Seckin Ungur, and Pierre Vigin, representing views from McKinsey’s global Education Practice.